"Chip ban" again? How does the auto industry take over?

"This agreement has not been made public, and the specific content is still unknown, but the overall direction is that the United States will further tighten export restrictions on China's export of chip products. This must be a fact." Deputy Director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference Miao Wei, the former minister of the Ministry of Information Technology, said in public a few days ago.

Miao Wei mentioned a new round of "chip ban" that may come. According to overseas media reports, the governments of the United States, the Netherlands, and Japan have reached an agreement to impose new equipment export controls and restrictions on Chinese chip manufacturing.

"This will indeed have a negative impact on the development of China's semiconductor industry, but what I want to emphasize is that such 'measures' will cause greater harm to the semiconductor industry and enterprises in these countries and regions at the same time, and in the long run , harming the interests of global consumers." Miao Wei said.

Earlier, the China Semiconductor Industry Association also issued a solemn statement saying: "If this move becomes a reality, it will not only cause great harm to China's semiconductor industry, but also cause incalculable harm to the global industry and economy, and to the final consumers of the world." long-term harm to the interests of the.

01

A new round of "chip ban" strikes?

According to reports, the United States, the Netherlands, and Japan’s current round of “ban” measures will set up an anti-China technology blockade network. The Netherlands may completely ban the export of DUV lithography machines, accessories, and technical services to China; Japan will completely ban the export of semiconductor manufacturing equipment. Materials and Raw Materials.

According to the news, this round of "core limit order" mainly restricts the manufacture of advanced process chips of 16/14nm and below for exports to China, and may restrict some models of immersion DUV lithography machines used in advanced processes, which are applied to mature processes. Some models of immersion DUV lithography machines may be open for license applications.

As early as 2019, the United States included Huawei and other companies on its economic blacklist. With the emergence of Chinese semiconductor companies, countries led by the United States have gradually escalated their blockade of China's technology sector.

In October last year alone, the United States successively issued two chip-related "restriction orders." First, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued nine sanctions, stipulating that chip companies need to obtain a license to sell advanced chip products or technical services used in artificial intelligence and supercomputers to China; subsequently, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) stated that the U.S. government will On the grounds of national security, it is forbidden to approve new US telecommunications equipment to use products from Chinese technology companies Huawei and ZTE.

In December last year, the U.S. Department of Commerce included 36 Chinese companies in the "Entity List", 21 of which were identified as companies that develop and sell artificial intelligence chips, including leading chip companies such as Cambrian Technology and Yangtze River Storage.

In addition, U.S. President Biden officially signed the "Chip and Science Act" in August 2022. One of the most noteworthy provisions is that companies that receive federal funds are prohibited from substantially increasing production of advanced process chips in China for a period of 10 years. In the relevant instructions issued by the White House of the United States, the purpose of the bill is summarized as reducing costs, creating jobs, strengthening supply chains and confronting China.

"The battle of the chip industry is actually a weapon in the game between big countries, and it is a struggle between countries. It is inevitable to take such a move at the political level." Wei Wei (pseudonym), China representative of an international semiconductor industry alliance ) pointed out.

02

The practice of "killing one thousand enemies and harming eight hundred"

According to CCTV news, Mao Ning, spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, spoke out on related matters at a regular press conference on January 30, pointing out that this practice harms others and does not benefit oneself, and undermines the stability of the global industrial chain. There are many voices of concern internationally. Many in the business community say that abusing export controls will cause confusion and affect efficiency and innovation.

"This influence must be mutual, and it belongs to 'killing one thousand enemies and harming one hundred and eight'." Liu Jia (pseudonym), the relevant person in charge of an automotive chip company, told reporters that chips are a relatively fully globalized industry, and China itself is the chip industry. As a big consumer, China also undertakes a lot of division of labor in production and manufacturing. The restriction on China is also the restriction on its own chip industry.

Data show that China is currently the world's largest importer of imported integrated circuits. In 2022, my country's imports of integrated circuits will reach US$415.6 billion, accounting for 72.5% of the world's total imports and exports of integrated circuits. Among the advanced process technology chips imported by my country, more than half are assembled into consumer electronics products and re-exported.

"Many chips used in Apple's mobile phones are imported from countries such as the United States. After Foxconn helps them process them, some of them are kept for domestic sales, and a large part is exported to overseas markets." Miao Wei said that mobile phones are the chips that use the most advanced technology. , the previous few years were also the fastest growing and most demanding products.

According to data from foreign statistical agencies, the global smartphone shipments in 2022 will be about 1.2 billion units. After subtracting the 4-6 week inventory cycle, it can be roughly concluded that about 80% of smartphones will still be "made in China" in 2022.

"Since last year, a new situation has emerged. The global consumer electronics market has fallen sharply. The shipments of smartphones have fallen by 12%, and the shipments of PCs have fallen by 16%. Chip companies have encountered unprecedented difficulties for many years. difficulties." Miao Wei said. For example, the annual report just released by a large U.S. company shows that in 2022, a huge operating loss occurred, which is the most difficult year for the company in more than 20 years since the Internet bubble burst.

Therefore, Miao Wei pointed out: "If the United States adopts such a policy of restricting chips, especially restricting the export of advanced process chips and equipment for producing advanced process chips to China, it will only bring 'worse' to related companies in these countries. effect."

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, an American think tank, also analyzed that if the United States adopts a tough policy of "hard technology decoupling" against China, it will damage the interests of some American chip companies, which may cause them to lose 18% of the global market share and 37% of the global market share. % of income and reduce 15,000 to 40,000 high-skilled jobs.

03

China's new energy vehicles: a new force supporting the global chip market

Another objective fact is that the adverse impact of the decline in the consumer electronics market on the chip industry can be compensated by the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, especially China's new energy vehicle market.

According to reports, new energy vehicles currently use more than 10 times as many chips as mobile phones. With the development of electric and intelligent vehicles, the amount of chips used in bicycles continues to rise. It is expected that each car will gradually reach the level of more than 3,000 chips from the current 1,500 chips, which is far greater than the chip usage of consumer electronics products.

In 2022, China's new energy vehicle production will reach 7.058 million, accounting for more than 60% of the global new energy vehicle production, and will continue to lead the world. "Moreover, China's new energy vehicle market is still expanding rapidly." Miao Wei believes that China's new energy vehicles will become a new force supporting the global chip market in the future.

Generally speaking, automotive chips are mainly divided into three categories, one is traditional automobiles that do not have high requirements on the manufacturing process, and the production is very mature; the second is silicon carbide power devices; the third is the large computing power and high performance chips.

Han Xiaomin, deputy secretary-general of the China Semiconductor Investment Alliance, pointed out that foreign blockades are mainly aimed at the latter two types of chips. my country has achieved independent production of silicon carbide power devices, but some equipment still needs to be imported, and large computing power chips are also produced by independent companies. However, foreign-funded enterprises still occupy the majority of the market share.

"More than half of the current electric vehicles are in China. If you don't do business in China, you will lose a huge market. Therefore, in the long run, the United States' suppression of China's semiconductor industry is actually a self-destructive behavior." Han Xiaomin said.

04

Accelerate the development of independent chips

China's chip industry is not unprepared.

As early as 2019, after China's first batch of high-tech companies such as chips were suppressed by the United States, my country accelerated the road to independent innovation of chips. Especially in the automotive intelligent chip, it has demonstrated a certain competitive advantage, and a number of outstanding technology companies have emerged.

"The chips of traditional automobiles in my country are relatively mature and are not affected by the 'ban'. In terms of power semiconductors, independent vehicle brands need strong support to help domestic power semiconductors speed up iterations on the car." Han Xiaomin said that in the automotive high-end In terms of advanced chips, my country also needs to seize the current market opportunities and grasp the current rapid development momentum.

"The United States has a very clear attitude of kicking China out of the global information industry ecological chain. The most extreme situation is that if the technology of the United States, Japan and the Netherlands is completely excluded, we may not be able to build a 40nm 12-inch line, and may have to return to an 8-inch line. era.” Wang Shuyi, chief analyst at Techsugar, believes that new “sanctions” have been introduced recently, and if this trend continues, it will have a serious impact on China’s semiconductor industry.

"(The new round of restrictive measures) is tantamount to raising the bottleneck process a little bit higher, and chips with a 28-nanometer process are also in jeopardy." Wei Wei further stated that the domestic 28-nanometer fab line is relatively mature, and the yield rate has also been recognized by the industry. and accepted by customers. Domestic fab manufacturers are also continuing to expand the production capacity of mature processes in a planned way.

In addition, for traditional cars, many parts use traditional craftsmanship. "With the continuous evolution of the electronic/electrical architecture of modern cars, today's smart cars need more powerful computing power and advanced technology support. Many functional boundaries of smart cars can be defined by the computing power of the central chip. From this perspective In other words, the restrictive laws have hindered the intelligent development of my country's auto industry." She said.

What cannot be ignored is that a lot of chip equipment in our country is dependent on imports. Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary-general of the China Electric Vehicle 100, pointed out in a public speech at the end of last year that in the entire value chain of automotive chips, manufacturing equipment and packaging and testing equipment accounted for about 16%, mainly distributed in Europe, America and Japan. The semiconductor equipment market is one of the short boards of my country's automotive chip industry chain.

"First of all, lithography machines, and some etching equipment, polishing machines, etc. are still mostly foreign manufacturers." Liu Jia said.

"There are many links in the entire semiconductor manufacturing process, and it's not just the lithography machine that is limited. What we have broken through so far is only etching and other equipment. Most of the equipment is quite different from the world's advanced level." Wang Shuyi said.

"But it has also created new opportunities. We are delighted to see that many outstanding automotive chip companies have emerged, and have been recognized and ordered by auto companies." Wei Wei told the "China Automotive News" reporter.

For promoting the further development of my country's semiconductor industry, Zhang Yongwei also put forward six suggestions from the perspective of automotive chips: one is to upgrade the technology of the entire industry chain; the other is to establish standards and a testing and certification system; At the same time, we must also promote the integration of the chip industry. The fourth is to grasp the production line and support diversified business models. The fifth is to increase policy support. The sixth is to solve the problem of talent gap.

"Industrial development, including autonomous vehicle chips, needs to be promoted from top to bottom, so that the industrial chain can form a benign ecology and a good resource allocation method." Wei Wei continued to say that from the perspective of national-level strategic planning, the industrial chain is balanced and benign Development, avoid repetitive investment, maximize strengths and avoid weaknesses, and the efficiency of industrial development will be higher.

"The chip industry needs persistent investment in R&D. We must take a long-term view and make the industry solid. Talents are the foundation and foundation. In terms of talent cultivation, we should further focus on support to truly bring out the three-legged function of industry, education and research." The fragrance of plum blossoms comes from the bitter cold', I have always eagerly hoped that this industry can find its own unique path in China and develop healthily and rapidly." Wei Wei said.

05

Continue to insist on open cooperation

"Export control only slows down the pace of China's manufacturing of independent advanced chips, but it cannot stop my country's determination and achievements in developing high-end chips." Liu Jia pointed out, "At present, opportunities and challenges coexist. There may be new miraculous effects under pressure."

In the face of the possible upcoming "prohibition measures", Wang Shuyi believes that on the one hand, it is necessary to increase the independent innovation of my country's semiconductor and chip industries and accelerate the introduction of automotive chips, and on the other hand, it is necessary to strive for opportunities to unite more international partners. , to reduce the impact of US restrictive policies on the development of local industries in various ways, continue to maintain the downstream industrial advantages, and wait for the upstream restrictions to be gradually broken.

"As a global non-profit organization, our alliance has always advocated the globalization of chips in the past 30 years since its establishment. At the industrial level, it is even more necessary to promote international exchanges and cooperation at this time." Wei Wei said that although currently affected Affected by a series of bans, the global chip layout has shown changes in plate migration, but the global chip industry is highly integrated, and the important position of the Chinese market is also recognized and valued by the global industry. "As for our country itself, we should carry forward the excellent spirit of the nation, long-term inheritance, and solid squatting is the real solution." She said.

"At any time, we must not engage in innovation and localization behind closed doors. The localization we mean includes both Chinese-funded enterprises and products produced by subsidiaries established in China by foreign-funded enterprises." Miao Wei said .

He further pointed out, "We must further create a better business environment, do a good job in serving foreign-funded enterprises in a targeted manner, and create a good development environment for domestic and foreign semiconductor enterprises in China. I believe that China, as the world's largest China's semiconductor market is characterized by active innovation, diverse needs, and high acceptance of new technologies, especially the characteristics of our large market, which can fully provide a good soil and environment for technological innovation and market development for global semiconductor companies. "

As the China Semiconductor Industry Association said, looking back on the development of the global semiconductor industry for more than 60 years, the reason why the industry has shown today's prosperity is precisely because of the global market and global cooperation and innovation, which is also the core driving force for the development of the semiconductor industry .

Text: Zhao Lingling Editor: Xue Yapei Format: Wang Kun

(Source: China Auto News)

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